Bursa Malaysia Derivative Palm Oil Price Outlook (FCPOc3) (as of Apr 2nd, 2012)

Short-term forecast

Short-Term (this week) – <Move in trend channel btw 3414-3566, unless the market has catalysts to lead>

(+) Ongoing geopolitical tension in the Middle East
(+) Momentum in positive Sentiment in U.S. labor market
(+) Improvement in economic activity in China
(+) Palm oil export of March rose 4.4% (ITS)
(+) Estimated soybean acreage for 2012 decline from 77.4 last year to 73.9 M acre. (previous forecast is 75)
(?) Upcoming - US Export of soybean (Thu)
(+) Upcoming – U.S. unemployment rate (Fri)
(?) Upcoming – U.S. unemployment insurance weekly claims (Thu)

Palm oil
(a) Oscillators:
Stochastic = m
RSI = approaching overbought
MACD = 54
(b) Bollinger – Overbought
(c) Candlestick
(d) Pattern = Ascending Triangle = possible to go upwards (rather than downwards)
(e) Open interest = increasing  (f) Volume = medium

Soybean oil
<Ranging btw 53.34-56.3>

Crude oil
<Ranging btw 101.32 to 108 >
Dollar Index
<Ranging btw 78-81.697> ild divergence